Where is Russia Going?

The spy novel isn’t dead.   It has been 18 years since Soviet tanks rolled in the vanguard of the May Day parade, which traditionally celebrates the 1945 victory over Nazi Germany.  Tanks and missiles not only rolled through Red Square, but through nearly every major city in Russia.

In the traditional speeches that accompany the the military show, Putin’s handpicked successor, President Dmitry Medvedev, made several thinly veiled comparisons between the Nazi invasion and NATO’s eastward expansion.  Putin, part old-style hard-liner and part magician, has brought a resurgence of pride back to the rank and file Russian. 

Clearly, Russia is reverting back to the days that preceded Glasnost.  Russia appears to be run by a cabal of ex-KGB, the Russian Mafia, and a few old hands from the Communist Politburo.  The primary question is, where are they going with this?

Other Questions:

Is Russia bent on going back to the old-style of Communism or have they come too far down the road of Capitalism?

Will Putin and his cronies use military force if they see their power slipping?

How much of the May Day parade was for the benefit of the Ukraine, Georgia, and other Soviet states who are hostile to the current Russian government?

Or, is this merely a “feel good” parade to take Russian minds off of rising food prices and to stir nationalistic pride?

Where is Russia going on the Capitalism - Socialism - Communism scale?

Comments

[Rook]

The Russian people have a lot more consumer goods available to them today than they ever had under Communist rule and they like it. The Russian Mafia has flourished, which they could not do under Communism, and they like it. It is only a few politicians who long for the old days when they had much more power. The parade of tanks and missiles was an attempt to recapture some of that feeling of power, a nostalgic glimpse of past military glory. But all Russians know, including the politicians, that there is no going back.
However, that isn't to say they don't have concerns about security; Russia is the most invaded country in history. But economics will dictate their course. If food prices continue to rise, Russia may try to force Ukraine and Lithuania back into the fold for their agricultural resources. That would be far more difficult if Ukraine or Lithuania was a member of NATO. To avoid such a confrontation it is unlikely that NATO will bring any more former Soviet states into the alliance in the near future. The U.S. will be pragmatic and not do anything more that complain if the Russians decide to move on one or two of their neighbors. If Mexico tried to create a military alliance with Russia we would do the same, only faster and harder. So we have to allow the Russians the same latitude.

[Potus]

The Capitalistic genie is out of the bottle, so Russia will not revert to Communism. Russia needs to reassert themselves as a world super power, so shows of military might are part of recreating this image from the old days. Russia has a lot of problems with their former states, so some of this show was, no doubt, for their benefit. Russia has plenty of oil, so I expect they can trade oil for food. I look for Russia to gravitate more towards Capitalism, complete with its excesses.

[JM]

The truth is Russia is a super power that still has a big bite. They have had 18 years of financial restructuring during their changeover from Communism to Capitalism, and once this retooling has been accomplished, they will become competitive in all areas. They have vast natural resources, a large cheap labor force, and a large nuclear military. The thing to watch is their relationship with China and their Islamic neighbors over the next 10 years.